[MUSIC PLAYING] After investing billions to light up our network, T-Mobile is America's largest 5G network. Plus, right now, you can switch, keep your phone, and we'll pay it off up to $800. See how you can save on every plan versus Verizon AT&T at tmobile.com/keepandswitch. Up to four lines via virtual prepaid card, a left 15 days qualifying unlocked device credit, service ported, 90-plus days put device in eligible carrier and timely redemption required. Card has no cash access and expires in six months. With the Wells Fargo Active Cash Credit Card, you can earn unlimited 2% cash rewards on purchases you want and purchases you need. That means you earn on what you want, like trying out that new workout class, and 2% cash rewards on what you need, like a foam roller for your sore muscles. That's the beauty of the Active Cash Credit Card. It's ready when you are, with unlimited 2% cash rewards. The Wells Fargo Active Cash Credit Card. That's real life ready. Terms apply. Learn more at Wells Fargo.com/activecash. [MUSIC PLAYING] [INTERPOSING VOICES] - That's Smiley Copman for '61. Wow. I'm Smiley Copman, and this is the Smiley Show. All right, guys. Welcome to the Smiley Show, Adam Schurnoff. He's a NFL expert, a guy who I've been following. For plenty of years now, whether it's his picks or just his fantastic analysis, from the British Columbia area right outside of Vancouver, he's a big golfer himself. But we're about to be NFL season, Adam. And I had to bring you on because you are the expert in my mind. You're the guy that knows all when it comes to the NFL. Adam, first, just give us a little bio of how you got into what you're doing now, and what your expectations are of just NFL, and that football is already back. - Sure. I appreciate you having me. I listened to the show all the time, so this is pretty neat to be in here. I'm not a big star-struck guy, but this is a real treat to be chatting with you, so. - Thank you. - My background, I set point spreads and totals in the Caribbean for almost a decade, right out of high school. I lived in the Dominican Republic, Columbia, spent time in Trinidad and Tobago as well. And so I started on the bookmaking and betting side, really, where I learned a lot and then have now transitioned to working with a group of professional bettors in the United States at Right Angle Sports, but do a lot of media as well, which is kind of my favorite thing to do. I would say more so than just the betting side is doing the daily shows and getting around, so fortunate to fall into a bit of a hybrid role where I can do the best of both, and I'm really enjoying it. - And to set the table for this interview, Adam, we're gonna get into a little bit of the presence cup as you obviously are from Canada, so we're gonna definitely get your insight there. But most of this conversation will be about the NFL, and if you wanna find more of what Adam does, like he said, the simple handicap on Apple and Spotify has been doing that for about eight years now, and Right Angle Sports, like you mentioned. So plenty of places to continue to watch and listen from. I'm sure there's gonna be a lot of folks, just like me, you want all the insight as possible when it comes to football season, because I wanna be an informed better when I am gambling. So for you, Adam, what I love about what you do is that you always have such good analysis for why you like a team or why you like a point total, and I feel like when it comes to gambling, where it sits now, I feel like either people, like handicappers will either price shop, or they'll have a very good analysis and a model in which they follow. Is there, for just somebody who follows gambling at a small, small level, what would be your advice on kind of which way to go when it comes to reading a board and understanding a board, or trying to just come up with your own opinion on what a game, what you should be taking in these games. - Sure, so I'd say first and foremost, for most people, realize if you're doing it for fun, or if you're actually doing it to try to make some money, because the way that you go from that is very different. And there's nothing wrong with either side, but it's very difficult to do it for fun with the hopes of making money, because you're against up against it. And a very tough spot. So figure that out, first of all, if you are going about it, and you're trying to make some money, and you're trying to take it more seriously, I would say really kind of determine, do you want to go the math direction, or do you want to go the subjective direction, which in other words is, are you gonna put together a lot of different power ratings from different sources, and try to figure out numbers that are right or wrong, or use different tools to find an edge, or are you the type of person that loves to watch games, loves to follow players, loves to watch a lot of shows during the week, to come up with opinions of your own. But, Smiley, I would say, between those two directions, the easiest way to go from someone who's just having fun, to taking it a little bit more seriously, whether you're on the subjective or the math side, would be start with, first of all, what you know, if you follow a specific team or division, really specialize in that, and then try go as far into the board as you can. So maybe don't play the full game side or total, maybe don't even play the first half side or total. Try go deep into props, try go deep into derivatives, and the first quarter, second quarter markets, in play markets, those are where you're more likely to find something really specific that you can take advantage of, 'cause it's so competitive in the markets that if you're just trying to take it a little more serious, you gotta get really selective with what you do. And how much has it changed from 2024? Let's even go back 10 years, 2014. You said you've been doing this for quite some time now. How tight it really is, finding value. I think that's something I hear handicappers say all the time, is trying to find any sort of value on the board. And a lot of it's perceived value based on the models that they come up with, but it seems like when, let's say, Adam, you love the Ravens minus four on a Monday when that line comes out. And then by Sunday, 30 minutes before kickoff, I look at that line and the Ravens are now a minus seven point favorite. So it kind of goes to your point of trying to find value, but a lot of times, you know, value's gone within the first 30 minutes of when it hits the market. So for someone that doesn't maybe have the time to be right away on a Monday, how do you just manage finding value, whether it's like in props, like you said, or trying to bet teams and games, like I would say most people try to do. - It's really hard 'cause it's become very, very competitive. The biggest difference between 15 years ago when I first started to now is that there's way more people with access to different sports books. They're betting much quicker. They're betting much earlier. And lines that used to sit Sunday night, Monday, Tuesday into Wednesday are gone within minutes. And people are able to bet at different sports books and do it a lot faster. And that's just made everything much more competitive. The flip side to that is something that I think a lot of people listening could probably take advantage of, is because there's so many different sports books that you can now play at, there's a lot of different bet types that didn't exist a long time ago. Now, whether or not there's things that you can bet a lot of money on is a subject for a different matter and debate, but there's a lot more options and a lot more depth to every game that you have a really a much better chance now of finding something specific around a team that you follow or players that you follow that you can bet on and make actionable where years ago, those bets just didn't exist. So pros and cons to how it's changed, but way more competitive, but way more options. - Yeah, and that's one thing too, that just kind of back to the very beginning of the question is that the Ravens at minus four and then later in the week, it's minus seven. I think one of the cool things that you always would put out on your Twitter, Adam, is like, I like the Ravens up to minus seven and that number could be minus four, minus five. How do you come up with the value in which is up to seven? A lot of people would say, well, you miss the boat on this. Three points is a lot of points in the NFL. For you, how do you determine where your cutoff is? - So in the NFL, a really basic sort of rule of thumb is the most important numbers every year for point spreads are three and seven. And then secondary numbers are four and six, just 'cause so many games end with a final score that is that differential. So if you have a team like Baltimore, you're saying you're making them minus four, if you're gonna say minus four is good up to minus seven, you're sitting on something that nobody else knows, which is incredibly rare to do. So the NFL kind of pigeonholes you in a way where if you like something at minus four, there's probably a pretty good chance you might like the other side if it gets to seven. And so you kind of get stuck in these windows of numbers because three and seven have so much weight in final scores. So that's one part of it. And then the second part of it would be because there's so many people betting the NFL markets, you have a very good reference point of previous games in how those games closed. And you can really kind of easily see if what a team was closing at last week or in recent games that gives you a pretty good high and low range to what they're gonna be priced at. And I would say an easy thing that people listening could do if you're trying to figure out sort of what a high and low range for teams could be is just pull up Google and search NFL power ratings for point spreads and just look at different sources. The more that you have time to put together the better, but it's a very good chance if you start putting together power ratings from two, three, four, five different sites, you're gonna get to a point where you have very good numbers of your own that you can reference. And if you're thinking a team is should be a certain number, but it's way off of those ratings, there's a really good chance that you're not seeing something correctly 'cause it's such a popular league that these ratings can really kind of put you in the right spot with numbers. So that's kind of how you end up coming to those conclusions at a very basic level. - And Adam, I don't typically have a pen and paper out for every single interview that I do, but I'm taking notes. Like NFL power, okay, I got it. Like I wanna be an educated and a well and four better. So I wanna do all of these things that you're trying to get our listeners and viewers to try to do to be a better game, which for me, I feel like consistency's something I've gotten better with over the years, if I am going to gamble, which is like stick to a process, like stick to a unit, not trying to go all in on one game. Because I feel like in this, it's like you can't beat Vegas with one game. Is that your philosophy or are you somebody that likes a game and you feel like this price or this numbers way off it? Were you kind of why when it comes to as far as just when you really, really like a game? - It really all depends on the spot. Usually in NFL, if you're looking at a side or a total for a full game, if you see something that you think is way off, again, typically you're the one that's mistaken because you just don't get massive errors in the NFL. So for the most part, for full games, sides and totals, it's very consistent. It's a standard bet amount, anything that I'll do in media rarely is significantly stronger or weaker than things that were given out in the past. Now, when you get into more of the prop markets or secondary derivatives, you can find things that have a pretty big variance. And that's standard, not just through NFL, but for every sport too. And so in some circumstances, you can look at those and say this is way off because a guy was injured and they got the depth chart wrong on this or they're mispricing the usage for this third string wide receiver who's now gonna be the second string. A lot of times in play as well, something that's typically missed by sportsbooks is if a team is trailing and you're looking at in play props, the second string or third string running back is typically used in the passing game more than the starter is. And so if a team is trailing by two plus scores and they're trying to pick up the tempo, they'll bring the passing game back in and that guy may often be priced a little bit shorter. There's a lot of things like that. - The backup would be getting. - Yeah, exactly. - In the past place. - Yep, exactly. The lots of situational things like that tend to be missed. And that's where you're like, okay, I wanna get as much as I can on this. And then it becomes like, what are you limited to by the sportsbook? So it really depends on the circumstance. But in an ideal world, you could just bet the same amount of money on everything and we'd all be pretty happy. But that's not reality. - That's so interesting. That's not even something I would ever think about. But if anybody who's ever watched football, that's something that's pretty common when you think about a team that's down to touchdowns, they start sending these wide receivers out and a lot of times the checkdown is the running back. So that's, I wouldn't ever think that far in advance. But like you're saying, there's opportunities in the prop markets, in the in-game stuff that hasn't been available for, this is probably four or five years now where it's really taking an uptick where you can actually not just take that first bet, which is the minus seven in the Ravens game, you're able to get some action in game that sometimes is a lot better value than taking a number that's crap by the end of the week. - Yeah, and this is like a good example. So say you're a huge fan of the Indianapolis Colts. Like that's your favorite team, that's the team you watch. And you're just the average better at home that's doing it for fun. If you take the time to specialize in the Colts, you may learn something like Shane Steichen is incredibly pass happy starting the game until he gets a lead. And then he flips his play calling dramatically to where he's insanely run heavy anytime he's leading. And you might be a Colts fan and you know that, that might be something that sports books and odds in play don't adjust for. And so just by being a fan of the Colts, when I'm saying things like specialize in what you know and try to go really, really deep, you're probably going to have a level of knowledge for how Shane Steichen, who's as polarizing of a play caller playing with a lead or trailing as there is in the league, you might know who he's gonna manage and bring up from the depth chart in those spots to get more playing time. And there's a decent chance that you might find something if you're scrolling through the menus that's mispriced. So there's lots of different situational things like that where if you specialize in on players, their roles, how coaches manage leads or when they're trailing, the you can find advantages. Another good one while we're rolling, like you might not think about if you're just the average guy listening at home is things like if you're betting a team to be under field goals, you can bet them over interceptions. So if a team has a quarterback that's throwing interceptions, it's a good chance they're trailing. And if you're trailing, you're unlikely to be kicking field goals 'cause you're trying to play for touchdowns. So it's like a simple correlation in some of these bets that you can build at sports books that you can kind of search through and apply to teams that you know, where if you get that, you might find that sports books tend to price those wrong. So like there's a hundred different things like this that if you just kind of specialize in a team in an area that you follow well that you can come up with. - That's beautiful. That's beautiful. Just keep giving us these nuggets at them. - I love that. - 'Cause there's a lot. - A lot accumulated over the last decade and a half for sure. - You know, I find that it's easiest on Sunday though when you look at an entire board to find, you know, whether it's three or four games, you know, some sides or whether it's totals that you really like. But I think the most difficult ones are when it's in prime time whether it's a Sunday night or Monday night football game. And it's that dreaded minus two and a half or if it's the three and a half in the hook. You know, it's those that, you know, they're trying to get you to bet one way or another. And I was curious from my perspective is for you who somebody that obviously is a very good handicapper and understands lines and points totals. Do you follow much of public money and sharp money? Is that something that you keep an eye on or do you just basically work off of your model? - It's a very polarizing topic that has differing opinions on each side of that topic. Some people find it really valuable 'cause like you said, it's easier to kind of, as a better tell yourself a story to give you confidence to bet a team than it is to come up with a reasoning that you think might not be accounted for in the market. So a lot of betters will see this team's minus three and a half. It's 80% of the money is on them. The line hasn't moved all week. And I saw this sharp better on the other side, on the underdog, like sports books must know something here. Why is the line not moving? The unfortunate reality that may crush a lot of dreams for people who bet that way is every sports book, for the most part, I'm generalizing, but every sports book copies one to two market-making sports books and we're at the stage now, especially in the United States in the betting industry where nobody wants to take a genuine position as a sports book and stand out from the rest of the market. And so when you see things like that written on Twitter where it's like the line is minus three and a half, 92% of the money is on the favorite, the line hasn't moved all week. It's more an indication that that sports book is following a market-making sports book than it is them actively having a decision that they're taking a stance on this team and they're accepting it. Another thing those percentages don't talk about is what percentage of that money comes from parlays, which is the overwhelming majority that is bet at a lot of these sports books. So that's a massive missing piece of the puzzle. And the third thing that's kind of the dream crusher is the majority of the sports books that talk about these percentages are what are kind of referred to as recreational sports books where the average guy will typically go and play bigger name sports books, you probably see them on TV quite a bit. And those sports books do not actively cater to professional betters. And so that percentage of bets is a reflection of what they have bet at their sports book. But the problem is if you're somebody that wants to bet alongside or tail or make a decision based on how those people are betting, those probably aren't the population of people that you want to be making your decision off of because they tend to be quite price insensitive. And so it's very tempting. And it's an incredibly convincing piece of content that's produced, but it almost always has no bearing on what the outcome of the game is going to be nor why the lines are the way they are. - That's so interesting. And I think the one of the most convicting things that I see when it comes to following how lines are moving and how much, whether it's bets slips or just a percentage, it's on one side. When I see that the line is moving the opposite way of the amount of money, so classic reverse line movement, when I see that, it's, I mean, just every alarm goes off in my head, it's like, yep, this is a side, like we are totally outsmarting everybody on this because if it doesn't make sense, it makes sense. And for the most part, that means I'm on the opposite of the public and I'm on the sharper side. And that's typically the way I like to bet, which is reverse line movements, unders, and most of the time dogs. And I used to not be that way, but for the most part, you're not hanging out with a lot of people at the casino or at the bar. You're probably one of the few guys cheering for this ugly, gross game, but it's when the reverse line, a lot of times it comes through when it's going that way. - And again, it's presented and can just be incredibly convincing 'cause it's hard to read it and disagree with it 'cause it's on, you typically a very big game that everybody's watching. And as somebody, if you're following sports, you tend to agree with the sentiment that it's presenting. And you're like, how can this not be true? And how can this not be real? You just have to be very careful on the source that it's coming from. 'Cause a lot of times it's presented in one way that draws a ton of engagement, but it's not fully the reflection of it. And to your point on Unders, a good line I heard several years ago is, again, a lot of people never bet Unders. They just don't wanna touch it. They wanna bet on something to happen. But oftentimes numbers will be inflated and the Unders the better bet. If you're betting the Under, you're betting the over on number of mistakes or things not to happen. So you can kind of flip the psychology if you're just a pure over better. If you start betting Unders, you're betting on the mistakes to go over essentially during the game. So it's kind of a different way to think about it. But I know how tempting that can be smiley, but you can get in trouble if you just start buying into the reverse line. ♪ It's been a long year ♪ - After investing billions to light up our network, T-Mobile is America's largest 5G network. Plus, right now, you can switch, keep your phone, and we'll pay it off up to $800. See how you can save on every plan versus Verizon and AT&T at tmobile.com/keepandswitch. (upbeat music) Up to four lines via virtual prepaid card, a left 15 days qualifying unlocked device credit, service, ported, 90-plus days with device and eligible carrier and timely redemption required. Card has no cash access and expires in six months. - With the Wells Fargo Active Cash Credit Card, you can earn unlimited 2% cash rewards on purchases you want and purchases you need. That means you earn on what you want, like trying out that new workout class, and 2% cash rewards on what you need, like a foam roller for your sore muscles. That's the beauty of the Active Cash Credit Card. It's ready when you are with unlimited 2% cash rewards. The Wells Fargo Active Cash Credit Card, that's real life ready. Terms apply. Learn more at Wells Fargo.com/activecash. - Oh gosh, man, it makes so much sense until you're down 14-0 and you're like, "Oh God, I just fell into that trap, but it's easy to do, it's easy to do." So as we kind of look towards 2024, I'm sure you've been watching a lot of preseason NFL football and as we're interviewing, as we stand right now, it's Sunday the Wind Up Championship. So when this interview is coming out, it's a day before Thursday night football, right after two-hour championship. So we understand, Adam, that things can change over the next three or so weeks before that first week in this conversation, actually. Ayers, but from your perspective, is there anything that you pick up on in preseason? Does it help you with handicapping? I know it's a lot of second and third stringers that are playing, but does it help you kind of create an identity, whether it's play calling, maybe depth in a team? Do you kind of just use that as a guide or do you pay much attention to preseason? Pay a ton of it and I've been watching football steady since Thursday night. So it's been a long couple days here in the office, but a good couple of days. A few things that I would say stand out for preseason the most is number one, new coaches or coordinators coming in. Every coach has a background, offense or defense. Every coordinator obviously does too. It really looking for changes in strengths and weaknesses and whether or not the players starter second third string buy into that new mentality that's presented. It's like perfect example. The Miami Dolphins significant change from Vic Fangio last year to Anthony Weaver this year. Weaver's pushing a ton of physicality, way more pressure. He comes from the Raven system. He spent time with Rex Ryan as well. And so it's just a night and day shift for mentality. So I watched the entire Dolphins game on Thursday night, multiple times during the broadcast they interviewed players on the sidelines and they were referencing how much they're buying into the system, how much they liked the new physicality that's being put on the field, how much they like the pressure. And so it's things like that that give you kind of confirmations to your opinions that you developed over the summer that you can then apply into the regular season. So that's definitely number one. And then number two would be just positional battles. And what we're getting, for example, the Bills have a significant position battle at wide receiver. They lost Stefan Diggs. They lost Gabe Davis. And so there's question marks about who's going to emerge, trying to see who's playing with the starters, who's starting quarterbacks in the limited time. They're on the field, they're targeting, whether looking, just trying to evaluate roles. A lot of that will apply, I'm sure to fantasy folks listening, that's not really my world, but my side of things would be props in a big way. So like who's maybe the fringe wide receiver or the fringe tight end who got extra playing time with the starters. Another big tell is if a guy's getting a ton of time with second or third units that's popular, you're likely in a bad spot 'cause if you're getting extra playing time in the preseason, they're trying to evaluate if you fit in with the team. And typically that's not a positive sign. So I'm looking to see guys that are kind of lingering out there for too long. Things like that really inform prop decisions too. So those are the two big ones for sure. - Are there any second and third stringers that you feel like, for instance, like you mentioned, the Buffalo Bills and their wide receiver core of a player that might be able to make that step up? Is there anybody in the preseason right now that's the Victor Cruz from the New York Giants preseason that's like, oh, this guy is going to be really good. - Initial standouts to me, Braylon Allen for the New York Jets, a running back, was used a ton in the backfield for the Jets. And again, people might be listening, don't take this super serious for fantasy. Again, I'm looking prop wise. So it might be, it come off as exciting, but think about this too. - I'm like, bring us all, dude. He's like, is it gonna get all the touches? Is what I'm thinking you might have as a fantasy guy, but obviously there's other roles on a team besides being the bell cow back. - Definitely, so keep that in mind, 'cause he is behind Breeze Hall, but like red zone opportunities, he's a huge back. So he might get opportunities. He's gonna be at like a really big price. A guy I was watching this morning in Indianapolis, Jelani Woods, he's a tight end, just a massive human being. And like Mo Ali Cox in front of him is just a huge, huge tight end on the field, but Woods is as big and slightly more dynamic. I've talked with a lot of Colts beat reporters, and they flagged him as a guy that, like everybody at campus watching and hoping turns out, he's gonna be a machine in the red zone if he gets to playing time, and he's gonna be priced at some very big numbers too. That would be a guy that stands out. For the bill specifically, you mentioned it, he's not like a sleeper, and he's not kind of behind the scenes by any means, but the usage throughout the summer, and then initially in what we saw in preseason, although it was limited, Dalton Kinkade, and this would certainly be more relevant to fans and folks. - I've read this too, I've read this too. - And Curtis Samuel. - And Curtis Samuel. Two guys that are gonna be used an absolute ton in Buffalo, and we saw them in limited time on Saturday, use Samuel out of the backfield a lot, so watch out for Samuel and Kinkade in Buffalo, that's a team that's gonna run a ton. And then the other one that I would say, if you're looking at Arizona, all signs point to them being just an incredibly physical team up front, that's going to be just running the ball as much as they can, part to protect their defense, but part because they're just huge, and that's what they wanna do. And so we didn't see James Conner in the preseason action, but we saw them really go too tight and heavy, really try to run the ball behind their offensive line. And so that's the thing that I would point to saying, Conner's probably gonna have another enormous season, and be used a ton. So that was kind of like two guys that are way off the radar, and then two pretty telling signs of things we're gonna get from two pretty dynamic offenses. - And if you follow Adam Shernoff like I do on Twitter, you would already know that the Arizona Cardinals' defense is not gonna be very good, because guess what, he posted this the other day about how their point totals are gonna be very high. I didn't know that they would protect their defense by running the ball, so that's actually a good note for the fantasy football guys out there. And it's for me, I just don't wanna finish last in my fantasy football week. So I'm just like trying to like, all right, I got Falcon K down, I got Samuel, I got James Conner down. So nobody wants to have fantasy football punishment for finishing last. - Sure, I'll throw another one at you as we're on, we're on the topic that we're notable. Terry McLaurin in Washington. So McLaurin historically throughout his career, he's had horrible QBs beside him, but he is one of the least complimentary players that you ever watch in press conferences in media. He just isn't like overly outwardly negative, but he just doesn't ever go out of his way to make much of attention, very much like a Nick Chub type of guy. - Okay. - This year, the amount of praise that he has openly given Jane Daniels is like blowing me away. So to me, I think he's gonna be used a ton in that offense with Cliff Kingsbury coming in, lot of quick passes, lot of down field shots. And again, like didn't see a lot of it against the Jets. That was a very good defense, but like Daniels was pushing the ball down field pretty willingly. And so McLaurin now with Samuel Gon, clearing away number one receiver on that roster. He's priced at about 900 yards for his receiving yards total for the year. He's a thousand yard plus guy in my books if healthy. So I think he's gonna have a monster season. - All right, scary Terry, let's take his overs. I'm here for that. Jane Daniels, you know I'm here for that too. I'm an LSU tiger and that guy is a lot of symmetries there for sure. - Yeah, it's gonna be interesting to watch him this year. And there's a bunch of rookie quarterbacks. And that's actually my next question I wanted to ask you is, how long it takes you to kind of figure out the identity of a team with a new rookie quarterback or whether it's a Malik neighbors at the New York Giants. How long does it really feel like you have a feel for how well these guys are gonna do in year one? - So I'll go kind of a different answer and maybe expecting I don't try to come up with an opinion right away because I know the market is going to beat me to it. So for instance, the Bears win total with Caleb Williams coming in significantly higher than what it was last year, regular season win total than you can bet over or under on. And so for me, that's telling me like the Bears are gonna be much better this year than they were a year ago. And I kind of work to validate whether that's moved enough or come up with reasons why it's too high. And so my opinions, not necessarily from like a scouting side is just trying to say like, is this too high? Is this too low? And so like right away, I would lean towards the Williams opinion being too high. It's a lofty increase for the expectations that he has. I would lean towards Daniels being too low. I think the Washington commanders as a team a little bit undervalued overall. And so again, their expectations haven't changed a whole lot. I think that's pretty low for what they've at least shown throughout Camp and what we're seeing now. Verdict's still very much out on what we're gonna get from Bonix, Sam in limited time today. Everything's pointing towards him being the weak one starter at this point, Peyton really likes him. Expectations could not be lower. And so I'm just looking for anything to try to figure out like is this guy worth backing on a week to week basis? So I would say like expectations couldn't be lower for Nix. And I don't know how you could say just how the Broncos are priced, which is the second worst team in the NFL. How you could say like, oh, it's gonna be a bust 'cause the market's accounting for that. And then Drake May would be the other guy that stands out. Saw very limited time for New England. He's priced on the team that's the lowest week to week, 30 second for point spreads over the course of the year. So again, rock bottom expectations. It does sound like talking to Pat's guys. He's gonna start anywhere between eight and nine games this season is the expectation. But again, I put him in the Nix camp where it's just this is rock bottom. Haven't seen a lot and not overly excited. And I'm just looking for any reason to find positives about them. Not much yet from either guy. - I hope you're not putting out any Broncos overs because I don't want to take him out. I'm nobody wants to take a Denver Broncos over now to start the year. So I hope you don't put that out 'cause that's the last thing I want to have to plug in because it's going to be maybe a point could be tough in the early goings for the Broncos. And to your point with the Patriots. I mean, I've heard reports that Joe Milton looks better than Drake May in practice, but Joe Milton might be the best like camp practice QB of all time with how far he can throw it. Just as an incredible athlete. - Yeah, and I hate to admit it, but I watched every snap of the Pats game on Thursday. So I saw a lot of Joe Milton when he was on the second half. It's almost not like fair to have it a comparison to what he can be when he starts 'cause this just massive quarterback that's mobile with a rocket arm comes out against the fourth string Panthers defense in a game where it's raining and ugly. And he's just firing it around the field. And it's like, of course he's going to look good. When you're that athletic, it's a no brainer. Now it probably looks a lot different against first-stringers and that's why we're not unlikely to see him. But yeah, you certainly look good on Thursday night against the fourth string Panthers defense. - Gosh, I mean, it's, I just remember watching him in Michigan and Tennessee and his expectations were so high every year and he ended up being a six round pick for the Pats. And we'll be able to see what happens within this year. Not high expectations. Like you said, four and a half is a win total for the Patriots. And that's kind of actually where I want to get to next, is win totals. I mean, this is something I think that everybody will excited. It's just a benchmark for where your team is at heading into the year, whether it's right or wrong. There's now 17 games on that NFL schedule. So that's makes the win totals, maybe just percentage point higher than they would have been four years prior. But as I see it right here, as I'm looking at the odds board right now, Adam, I see about eight, maybe nine teams with a win totals in the double digit number. When I see this many, for the most part, I try to find a way. It's like, I don't want any part of taking a lot of these overs. I'm trying to disprove, like you said earlier, with some unders here. Are there any between the Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens, Bills, Bengals, Cowboys, Lions, Eagles, Packers? Are there any one of those eight that just stand out that's like, you know what? These guys are price way too high. - Okay, so we can kind of rapid fire a couple of these. The Ravens are too high at 10 and a half. They have offensive line problems. I was originally concerned about the defense. It seems less or so. There's actually more worry about what they're going to look like on offense with a hampered O line. The division gets tougher. So I'd be Ravens under at 10 and a half. - And I had two. The Ravens schedule is really difficult too, I think. - It is. Everyone in the north this year has a brutal schedule. And a lot of that's driven by, obviously, Burrow missing time last year. And the never ending what if with the Sean Watson. But that's a brutal division to have to play out of. So Ravens under 10 and a half. Want me to fire off a couple more? - Yeah, please, please. Eagles over 10 and a half. I think the Eagles are going to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. I think it's a very underrated team despite the 10 and a half win total. Offense is going to be awesome with Kellen Moore. Defense improved on their biggest weakness in the secondary. Bring in a new defensive coordinator as well. That's a big upgrade. I think Jalen Hurts can have a monster year too. So Eagles over. - So one question I have about that, it's like trends in the NFL when you look at how they perform versus the win total in years past and seven out of the last eight years the Eagles have gone under their win total. But you don't typically do you look at trends at all when it comes to something like that? Or you just do your own analysis just like you talked about and just use that as your guide? - Yeah, no, very little. I'm more concerned about what's happening this year, what's going to be different from last year and how that's being priced. And I saw an Eagles team last year as lucky as they may have been to be at the spot they were in the middle portion of November. That was a team that performed at a very high level despite complete dysfunction from both the new offensive and defensive coordinator. And now they have two professionals on either side in Moore and Fangio. So it's a team that has a ton of talent that I think is going to really overperform this year. - And a fantasy football question it comes to say, come on, Barclay, is the tush push? Is the tush push though going to take away some touchdowns from my guy? - Well, let's see what happens with some changes on the offensive line with Kelsey gone and stuff. I don't know how big of a play that's going to be but Barclay's going to have a monster year because he's going to be used in the past game so much. - Oh, good point. - That he has potential for huge plays. So I think going to make as big of an impact in the passing game as he will the running game but he's going to be a huge part of this offense. And really he's been a guy his entire career for the most part that's been behind a terrible offensive line in New York with really poor outstanding weapons around him especially recently lesser so when he came into the league but we kind of a couple of years removed from seeing him in a decent environment. I think there's a huge ceiling for Barclay this year. - Sweet. All right, what else you got? - So because Eagles over is such an adamant confident stance naturally Cowboys under plays off of that. They're at 10 and a half serious doubts about whether or not CD lamb is going to be there. It's getting kind of messy but there's also a spat between Mike McCarthy and Jerry Jones that is kind of under the radar. They're not getting along. There's just major questions out of the backfield that the Cowboys haven't had in a long time and it's the weakest offensive line the Cowboys have had in DAX tenure. So the defense at best is Boomer bust. The offense that used to be this solid cornerstone just now has questions everywhere and it's lacking a lot of depth too. And so it's a coach that gets out coached in big games every single time. It's an easy under for me on the Cowboys. - I got some friends that are going to be very upset with that because I got a really good friend group over there in Dallas that every year they think this is going to be here for the Cowboys. And I'm with you too. I think there's some dysfunction like you talk about. And I just felt like last year Trey Pollard should have been the guy. Just take that massive step in the run game and then who is there running back this year? - Well, Pollard looked really good when he was playing like off contact and he performed well but it was undeniable that he was going to be a step slower and you saw it kind of in open space too. That burst just wasn't there. So Zeke is falling over at practice and looks like he's 55 years old. - Oh, Zeke. - Zeke. - Rico, Dallas, okay. - Yeah. Rico, Dallas is going to be fighting him for snaps. - Wow. - Okay. - That's not strong. - It's just step down and in the offensive line changes too. And so it's just there is that outlet that Dax had out of the backfield, the bail amount in time is going to be there. I don't think so. And that old line is going to be weaker if Lamb's not out there. There's not a great skill position group of guys for the Cowboys on this field. So I'm fading the Cowboys for sure. - Okay. So we just kind of talked about the high end of the NFL, the teams with high expectations. What about that middle ground or maybe even the lower tier of teams that are being undervalued? - So we want to go just lower totals and unders or do we want to go teams that are kind of sneaky and undervalued over it? - I think teams that are undervalued that have that middle to lower tier as far as their win totals that you think you're going to outperform where those win totals are. I've got three for you. The one that I'm most confident in is Carolina. I think they're sneaky to get the seventh spot in the NFC and compete for that playoff spot. - Wow. What's the, why? - So big change of coach. To me, the Panthers this year, it reminded me a lot of the Jags in 2021 and 2022. So if we think about what Jacksonville was in 2021, highly touted prospect and Trevor Lawrence, it was ranked as high as we've seen in the long time at QB comes in. You have Urban Myers, the head coach. You're saying that this is all going to click. You have, it all sets in pretty well, complete disaster. They went, I think it was two and 14, whatever it was. And then you have the entire coaching staff change over. Doug Peterson as an adult comes in, provides some stability. The Jags expectations that year were lower than the season prior. Jacksonville clicks all of a sudden 'cause they have all this talent end up making the postseason. Last year, very similar thing. You have Frank Reich as the head coach. You're like, this is going to work. Here comes another highly touted prospect in Bryce Young. He's going to fit in. There's offensive weapons around him, complete disaster. And again, like the Jags had, it was an in-season firing where things were unstable. Now this year, Dave Canales comes in as head coach. And I don't think a lot of people realize what Dave Canales has been a part of in his career. So when he first took sort of a prominent role with the team, it was with the Seahawks. Immediately that year he led Russell Wilson to his best career ever passing the football. Now we've seen what Russell Wilson looks like out of that Seattle system. It's not very good. Gino Smith two seasons ago in that rebound year had his best career season ever passing the football. That was with Dave Canales as his coach. We saw what Gino Smith looked like last year, a year removed from having Dave Canales. Now where did Dave Canales go last year? He went to Tampa Bay. Baker Mayfield career season passed in the football. Now Dave Canales comes into Carolina with a quarterback that's struggling. And Bryce Young to me is kind of being written off in the same way that Baker was written off in the same way that Gino was written off. And in the same way that Russ was written off pre-trade and certainly post-trade. And another thing I really like with Carolina is they've got one of the most underrated defensive coordinators in the entire NFL to elevate that unit. But they also bulked up their analytics staff in quite a significant way. Brad Idzick is a really young offensive coordinator. He's great with wide receivers. They got really good math guys now behind the scenes. It's just a ton of positives for me with Carolina. And they're win totals, two wins lower than last year. - Okay. - Too big of an adjustment for me. Long winded answer, but Carolina's really undervalued. - He's better over here. - AT&T customers switching to T-Mobile has never been easier. We'll pay off your adjusting phone and give you a new one free, all on America's largest 5G network. Visit tmobile.com/carrierfreedom to switch today. Pay off up to $650 for your virtual prepaid master card in 15 days, free phone up to $830 for your 24 monthly bill credits plus tax, qualifying port and trade and service on go 5G next to credit required. Contact us before canceling entire account to continue bill credits to credit stop and balance and required finance agreements do. - With the Wells Fargo Active Cash Credit Card, you can earn unlimited 2% cash rewards on purchases you want and purchases you need. That means you earn on what you want, like trying out that new workout class and 2% cash rewards on what you need, like a foam roller for your sore muscles. That's the beauty of the Active Cash Credit Card. It's ready when you are with unlimited 2% cash rewards. The Wells Fargo Active Cash Credit Card, that's real life ready. Terms apply. Learn more at Wells Fargo.com/activecash. - That's interesting and they're in the NFL South, which is probably one of the weakest divisions in NFL and looking at the division win totals. I mean, I see Falcons as a favorite, but also I see the Carolina Panthers that plus a thousand on fan duels. So is that worth a poke at? If you feel like if the Carolina Panthers can always hang in there in a division that can, you know, most likely, there's a chance that you only have to win eight, eight, nine games to make the playoffs and win that division. - Yeah, it is. I think you can take that price. I think you could also look at Dave Canala's Coach of the Year, which is probably around 16 or 17 to one. The thing to think about there is to win coach of the year, you got to make the playoffs. And so if you believe that they can sneak that seven seed, like if they do, he's winning it. If they don't, it's going to be really tough for him to get that. So if you don't like the win total, those would be too alternative. - All right, what's your other two yet? - Seattle with Mike McDonald coming in as the head coach, they're priced either seven and a half or eight wins, depending where you look. I think they can contend to win nine or more. I think Mike McDonald is going to be a top five head coach in the NFL if he's not realized as being such already. So obviously his first job as a head coach, but this defense is already bought into what he does. He has one of the best defensive schemes in the NFL. Last year in a Ravens roster loaded with talent, he led them to historic performances from an advanced stats perspective the entire season. So he's got a ton of weapons in Seattle that he can utilize. They looked amazing in their preseason debut against the Chargers. All camp has been nothing but positive reviews. And then quietly, they have a top five receiving trio in the NFL with Metcalf Lockett and Smith and Jigba. And if Gino, who's a great downfield passer, can just find some more stability like he had two years ago, this is going to be a very sneaky good offense too. So I really like Seattle as a sneaky team in the NFC West. - That's interesting. That division is, you know, you have San Francisco 49ers. You got the Cardinals that are in fourth, but also a potent offense like he talks about defense suspect. And then the Rams as well, which is, you know, they're coaching and they have plenty of talent on that roster. So that division will be interesting. And Seahawks are kind of that team in that it's like, "Oh, if they're good, that makes that division just brutal." - No, it really does. Sean McVade did an interview with the athletic and he was asked about it. They're like, "Mike McDonald's in the division now. "What do you think about it?" And the look on his face was just anger and frustration. - Because he knows it's like this is an elite, defensive play caller and scheme designer. Like McDonald's so, so good and everybody, I think we'll realize the by the end of the year. - Interesting. Okay, cool. Seattle Seahawks seven and a half, eight. He likes nine or more. What's the last one you got? - So the last one that I liked that I would say is kind of in that range would be the Minnesota Vikings. So they're priced at seven and a half wins, but you can get that at plus money. Most places will kind of be shaded towards seven. So if you can find seven and a half plus one 30, I think this is a team that's really written off. Kirk Cousins left and their average point spread this year is three points worse than they closed last year. So it's a big adjustment. Win totals down a couple wins too. So it's like Minnesota expectation wise, really, really low. Something I want to point out when we're talking about undervalued coaches and play callers, Kevin O'Connell, the head coach of this team is an awesome play caller. And just a brilliant week-to-week game planner. Last year, believe it or not, Post Kirk Cousins going down. So think about who he had. He had Josh Dobbs, who was on team number two. He had Jaren Hall, an unproven rookie, and he had Nick Mullins, the career backup that hasn't been excited about anything in several years. He's just the most flat line stoic quarterback you're ever gonna see. Kevin O'Connell with that. And without Justin Jefferson, by the way, 'cause he was hurt too. - That's right. - He still had this Vikings team at 20th for advanced stats on offense. And so the fact that he was able to take such a bad situation and maintain a very respectable level of offense, to me gets me excited looking at a team like this that's so undervalued, now with Sam Darnold, who say what you will about Sam Darnold? I'm a Jets fan. So like, I'm as disappointed of Sam Darnold's career as anyone out there. But he's, when put in the right spot, still has a very good arm and provides mobility, something that Kirk Cousins never ever did in his career. And I think O'Connell with a mobile quarterback and some of these weapons, Jefferson, Hockinson, Addison won't be suspended until later in the season. You now have Ty Chandler in the backfield with Aaron Jones. There is a ton of weapons here for Kevin O'Connell to utilize. And even if it's a switch to JJ McCarthy who looked pretty good in his debut as well, I think O'Connell is gonna get a lot out of this team. And you have Flores on the other side is DC who's just willing to blitz and bring pressure at any opportunity that's great when you think about how this offense is gonna operate. So I think Minnesota is really underrated in the NFC North that's just lined with headlines of quarterbacks and big teams. So I'd play there over for sure. - Did JJ McCarthy move the needle for you at all in the preseason game? - I mean, it gives me more confidence in this. I think either guy could perform admirably in this offense and be like an average quarterback. If McCarthy turns into more than that, amazing. But like to me, if you're saying, if you're a McCarthy believer and you don't like Sam Darnold 'cause you haven't seen anything from him in six seasons, so be it. Let's put the floor at Darnold playing the majority of the season. I think you're getting average or better out of that with his mobility in O'Connell's play calling 'cause like I certainly have Darnold rated a lot higher than those four guys. He got a ton out of last year. So to me, Minnesota overs are certainly in play. - Okay, the last little section I got here is just a little buyer selling these three teams 'cause I think these three teams are really interesting. And the three teams are the Green Bay Packers, the Houston Texans and the Detroit Lions. All three of those teams to me have expectations that are high. You have quarterbacks on all three teams that I think their fan bases are excited about. And honestly, when you just look at these three teams, these are teams I wanna watch when they're on TV and I think sometimes expectations heading into a year for younger types of teams, sometimes they can fall a little bit flat on their face. Are you buying and selling on these teams? - Okay, buy the Lions. This is it though. This is the end of the window for the Lions because Ben Johnson will leave next year. The fact that they were able to retain him for another year and work that deal out, post losing out in the NSC Championship was incredible work by that organization. So this is the all-in, this is it year for the Lions. I'm buying into it. I think the home field advantage is real. His play calling is real. He's gonna be a head coach next year. This is it for the Lions. So I buy into that crazy high expectations. So I don't know how much you'll be able to bet on them. - You're 10 and a half, so I win total. So that's pretty dang high. - Really high. So it's realized, so buying it for sure. I'll sell the Packers and it's a tentative sell because of how big the ceiling could be. I'm selling them for two reasons. One, Jordan Love last year had two different seasons in one. He started off the first eight weeks and looked like the quarterback who had to start of the year. This time last year, smiley, were like, can this guy come in and be the starting quarterback? Now is the highest paid player in the league. So it's a big shift for how much we've come in a year. - Is this shocking to you, by the way? - Incredibly shocking. And the way that LaFloor was able to coach that team and get so much out of the youngest roster in the NFL last year and be that competitive and have everything come together is amazing. But for two and a half months, there was nothing but concern about where this team was going. Now they have an offensive line in front of him that has some serious issues too. So that's the only reason that I'm selling the Packers and a lot of it ties into me buying the Texans. 'Cause I think these two teams are gonna be married in a lot of conversations. I'm buying the Texans and selling the Packers because the Texans were the opposite last year. They lost drought for a couple of games to injury. They had to start so many different offensive line combinations. There was one game where Demico Ryan's came out and he said, doesn't matter who's gonna start at O-line, it's next man up, we'll make it work. Like all the starters were down. They lost skill position guys. You had a first time play caller and Bobby Sloak who was way too run heavy at times. Like Houston did what they did last year in spite of all these issues where Green Bay did what they did having everything bounce their way and work in their favor. The Packers didn't improve their roster this off season. The Texans just loaded up the roster. They had an elite kid receive for one in digs. You bolster the defensive line, you add pass rushers. Like the Texans elevated what they did. So for me it's like I'm buying the Texans 'cause if they just get a little bit of health and can improve a little bit on what they did a year ago, their roster got so much better. So that's why I'm buying the Texans and selling the Packers. It's really hard for me to separate those two when discussing it, but I would prefer Texans over Packers. - Yeah, I tend to agree with you too. Packers win total last year, it was seven and a half this year. It's all the way up to 10 with winning just one playoff game. It seems like people have just forgotten. It's a very young roster. They had, I believe it was Josh Jacobs from the Raiders. - And what's he gonna be like two years removed from that season? - Right, so I tend to agree with you. I think people are just remembering the playoff win from the Packers and seeing it at 10. I just wanted to get your opinion on that because it's very interesting when you go from a team that's, nothing's really changed about the roster from one year to the next and that seven and a half to 10 is a pretty big jump. - Huge jump, yep, for sure. - Well, this is the best way to wrap up the NFL, which is you've already mentioned one of the teams that you think is gonna represent the Super Bowl, which is a Philadelphia Eagles from the NFC side. So you might as well give us your AFC pick. Are we gonna go Chiefs? Is that where we're heading? - I need to be the guy to get a boring answer on the podcast, I can't not. They won, I think about the trajectory of criticism. It was first, they didn't have a defense. Now they've developed an elite top 10 defense with the best defense of coordinator in the league. They couldn't win without wide receivers. They figured out a way to do that last year and now they've added wide receivers. Every time that this team gets hit with criticism, they're prepared for it and they adjust to it. And so I'm not fully there on buying into the deep ball stuff in this returning to 2018, 2019 Chiefs football with my homes, but I think they're gonna be very efficient running the football. I think the defense is going to be elite and I think that they're far and away the team to beat the AFC. So I think it's a rematch of a couple of years ago, Chiefs Eagles in the Super Bowl. - And they have the highest win total along with the 49ers at 11 and a half. - Right, who's goal? - Two of the last three years though, they have gone under on that win total. We'll see if everybody stays healthy. It should always watch the Chiefs. And also, I mean, it's kind of America's team now with Travis Kelsey and Taylor Swift. So all the eyeballs will always be on Travis Kelsey. And I'm wondering too, do you think this will be his last year? - Does it feel that way too? - Yeah, I honestly, going into last year, I was like, you're watching him on the field and stuff. He looked a step slow and it came down to it end of the year and he was there every single time. So he's, I don't think he's quite, I remember Gronk on the field, like ladder stages at his career where it just looked rough and slow. - Just looks like you got bored in the regular season. That looked like with Kelsey last year, you got off to a good start in his, I think he was, you know, really off to a great pace. And then the second half of the year, it's just like, where did he go? - Yeah, I don't think he's there yet. I think we're getting close, but you have to wonder if they get another ring this year, does he go out on top like that perhaps? But yeah, it's hard to say, but it certainly seems like it's getting close. - Wow, this is, I mean, the amount of information you just gave, not only me, but all the listeners and watchers that love football, that just love turning on the TV on Sunday and having an informed opinion. Well, you can listen to Adam every single week on his podcast, like we said at the beginning of this episode, the single handicap on Apple and Spotify and right-angle sports. So make sure you go tune in, like and subscribe. But on the way out, Adam, we got to talk a little bit of golf 'cause this is a golf podcast. And you informed me that you've gone from a 14 handicap to a four handicap this year just by going to see a coach. What did this coach tell you? 'Cause I might have to go see this coach to lower my handicap from 10 slots there. - Yeah, it was a night and day turnaround for me. And I'll shout out coach Leela, who was the captain at USC several years ago. She's now teaching up here. And it's the first year that I've taken lessons weekly. So I signed up for the full year package and committed to it. Honestly, smiley, the biggest thing I've found it so difficult is just a recreational golfer to find lessons that are worthwhile, especially now with the amount of tech. I went to so many places that tried to force you into a certain swing type or, which is kind of, I found a lot of the technical stuff extremely overwhelming. And you would go to play golf, I would. And it would be like sort of trying to live up to this expectation from a technical perspective 'cause you paid the money for the lessons, you paid the money for the round golf. And it's like, I've got to be better and apply this. You got the whole 15 and you're like, is there enough supination? And it's just, right, it's really, really hard. And so the difference that I found with Leela, the coach this year was we really focused on, like the identity of who you want to be as a player and fitting into that expectation. And so it was very non-technical. I got like the one swing thought to think about, the chest was too quick in transition. But I was always the player that everywhere I went, I was told, you've got a lot of speed, you've got to be like the bomber, you got to take advantage of it. And I would just have no control over the golf ball off the tee and my rounds would just spiral. And so she's really helped me kind of commit to shots better off the tee, be more confident in finding a shot shape that works for me. And then really focusing on a lot of wedge play. And it's been night and day just being able to commit to the type of golfer I want to be and not be committed to a bunch of swing thoughts that I just could never make work. And so I'm thrilled that I was able to find her and it's made such a difference. - I'm thrilled for you. I mean, golf's fun when you're playing better and you know where the golf ball's going, you're not thinking about a whole lot. But well, you just heard, I mean, the last however long we talked about the NFL, I mean, your job is analysis. So when you have a teacher come up to you and give you a bunch of analysis, I'm sure your brain just turns on. You're like, yep, give me all the information 'cause this is what you do for a living. You love all the information. So for someone like me who's in a similar boat who kind of is wired similarly, I always did best with less information. Just, can I understand the concept? But give me one swing thought. Just let me just go play golf and not think about 10 different things. The supination thing was so relatable 'cause for me it's a boat risk. It's like, this was one thing I wanted always feel but then it just makes everything else just feel like crap. So I just was like, oh God, this is such a frustrating game at times. - No, a big time. And so what we've got to is now, we kind of do a lot more on core stuff even if it's for just two or three holes rather than sitting in the bay with track man going. And any time that we go there, it's more for her to validate something that she's seeing but she turns the numbers off at the bottom. And then she'll play a video of the swing but she won't let me like analyze it. She'll just be like, here's what's going on. Just watch your chest in transition. If it opens up, it's moving your low point forward. That's why you're thinning it. So you just have to be more patient at the top and feel like the arms are going quicker. And it's just that simplification is gone. Like the side-by-side swing stuff, I would just get in the darkest web at old and I'd be on YouTube and all WRXs and the forums being like, and it was just, it was such a dark place. But now it's for an amateur play, I'm obsessed with golf outside of the football season. So it's fun for me, but just to be better is such a relief. - All right, so you said you were a bomb or you have speed. If I recall, I'll watch your sweep. You're swinging on whether it's Instagram or Twitter. What's your highest ball speed or club at speed you've hidden? - So two years ago, I was working with a coach who was a really accomplished player up here. And we were going to the Bay. He had like a big DJ speaker in the back of the track, Man Bay and would put on music. And he's like, "Just swing as hard as you can." - You're full-brice into Shambo mode, man. That was just like this quiet club in Alberta, Canada. And he's just the speaker's six feet away from me. And I'm like, "What is happening?" I hit 121 swing speed and ball speed. I didn't look a ton of ball speed, but it was quite efficient. So I had like high 170s matching that swing speed, I believe was fair, but it's now on course, it's dialed back so much. And it's made a big difference. 'Cause you just, as a recreational player, I don't need to be hitting a drive on a 6,500 yard course. Like it's just, it was no good for me. And so I'm scoring so much better now. - Good for you. In a lot of places too, a 6,500 yard golf course. And you have that much speed. The dog leg starts to really narrow up. Your misses, where your drive would be going, much tighter than somebody who, when I play shorter courses, I feel like I end up having to cut dog legs, but most of the time just getting the ball in play, that's how you start lowing your handicap. And you said you're from Canada, and that's where I'm gonna end this conversation, which is that the president's cup is going to be at Royal Montreal Golf Club. And you're over in Vancouver. I just wanna get a sentiment a little bit about just Canadian golf. How excited do you feel the Canadians are to support the president's cup and the Canadians that are gonna be there? Because the international team, although they don't have live players playing on their roster still, I feel like they have a little bit of momentum from the president's cup at Quail Hallo. - It's starting to pick up. So it's typically kind of quiet during the summer, unless someone from up here is near the top of a leaderboard on a Sunday, then you get the viewership spike. But it's starting now, especially with football picking up. All of the NFL here is condensed and put on one channel. And so then you get hit with all of the ads for Ryder Cup, President's Cup, whatever it might be, the big event. So starting to see a lot of it now. And I think it's gonna be pretty big once we get to the event. And I think what the big difference will be, let's see what weird does with his picks. 'Cause even now as we're talking like in the top 15, he doesn't have to deviate too far if he wants to take all four Canadians that are eligible up there. And I don't know if he would take a lot of flack for doing it. If a guy like Mackenzie Hughes is too far out or how that might look. So if he's able to stack the roster with the Canadians that are on the fringe day with his picks, that'll really start moving the needle and get things excited to like, we've seen some crazy RBC events out here in the last few years, but that would take it to kind of the next level. And I think really for years to come be huge. - And if you were Mike, where would your cutoff be with the Canadians? Would you take as many as you can? Who's getting left off of this roster? 'Cause I mean, you got, like you said, you got Corey Connors, you got Taylor Pendreth that's won this year. He's currently 13th in the standing. Hadwins and 12th currently. Mackenzie Hughes right at 15. It seems like Mackenzie Hughes is gonna be the guy that's gonna be right on that cusp. - I think Hughes is the one that's in around. I think definitely you have to take Connors, you have to take Taylor, you have to take Hadwin and you have to take Pendreth. So you get those for the other two. I think it would be hard to justify taking Mackenzie Hughes over Seawoo or Minwoo Lee. Like that would be, I think you got to take Minwoo Lee and I think you have to take Seawoo Kim. So I think there's four spots that'll come down to Weir and I think you got to go four Canadians in there. And it'll be a pretty good kind of contingent when you look kind of region wise, couple of South Koreans, you compare together to be pretty good couple Canadians, you compare, you got a couple of Aussies too. So I think you could get some pretty good pairings out of those groupings. But yeah, I think it might be tough for Hughes to get in there as five of the six picks for Weir. - Are you back in the international team? You're gonna do it? - It's just like the Ryder Cup every year where you see the odds and typically it's shaded towards the US. And this year I've seen US around like minus 250, but it's like you look at how dominant Scotty's been, you look at Xander coming on and winning two majors. Like every time it seems so good 'cause you wanna buy into the team aspect. And then you just look talent and performance wise and you think about those head-to-head match-ups and you're like, this just seems like burning money betting against what the US is gonna be putting out there. So I haven't made a decision yet, but I'm curious to see if he stacks to roster with some Canadians. - Well, last time the Americans played the road President's Cup of the Royal Melbourne Tiger Woods was the captain and that was a very close President's Cup. So I expected the saying this year, I think it's gonna come down to singles on Sunday. So I'm looking forward to it. I'm hoping there's gonna be a bunch of Canadians that Mike Weir puts in the back half of that lineup because I want this place juiced up. We've seen how the Canadians support the Canadian Open every year, some of the best fans in the world, and especially on a golf course. - Yeah, if he stacks to Canadians with his picks, that's gonna be as good of a president's cup atmosphere as there's been a long time for sure. - Is that gonna make you book a flight and go? - No, I wish it's football season. So it's like I'm walking in every day, it's tough to find. That's why even now I go to the course, it was club championships this week. Couldn't make it 'cause preseason was on and we're betting and watching and charting every game. So it's a give and take. I get four to five good months of golf uninterrupted, but once football starts, it's tough to find much time outside of it. - But I'm sure you got like six to eight monitors and you're watching all the games. Do we have one monitor on the golf though, or at least gonna keep up with it with the TV on? - 500%, there is always a screen that's golf channel, something on YouTube golf-wise or any event, especially on the Sunday. So no issues there. - Well, Adam, we are so thankful for your time, man. This has been such a great conversation, a lot of great NFL insights you've given us today, and just a reminder. So if you wanna go follow Adam every single week, he's on the single Handicap podcast on Apple and Spotify at Right Angle Sports. And Adam, thank you for your time. Keep hitting it straight once we thought at a time, and we hope to catch out with you soon. - I appreciate it very much. This was a ton of fun, so hopefully some actionable insights there for betting people can apply. Very much, appreciate it. Thank you, Adam, and we hope to talk to you soon. Likewise. - With the Wells Fargo Active Cash Credit Card, you can earn unlimited 2% cash rewards on purchases you want and purchases you need. That means you earn 2% cash rewards on what you want, like season tickets to watch your favorite team, and 2% cash rewards on what you need, like paying for parking. That's the beauty of the Active Cash Credit Card. It's ready when you are, with unlimited 2% cash rewards. The Wells Fargo Active Cash Credit Card, that's real life ready. Terms apply. Learn more at Wells Fargo.com/activecash. - The $5 meal deal at McDonald's means you get to pick between a McDouble or a McChicken. Then get a small fry, a small drink, and a four-piece McNuggets. That's a lot of McDonald's for not a lot of money. Get the $5 meal deal today. Prices and participation may vary for a limited time only. (upbeat music)
Join Smylie Kaufman on the Smylie Show as he welcomes betting expert Adam Chernoff, transitioning from the golf season into football with exclusive insider knowledge.
