Derek Moore relays how markets have done historically around geopolitical events. Plus, how being hedged allows investors to stay in the market. Interesting stats on markets 1-year later after drawdowns. It may surprise you. What the latest Russia/Ukraine situation means for inflation and interest rates.
How markets perform around geopolitical events
Does the Russia conflict increase inflation risks?
Will the Fed raise interest rates less in 2022 now?
Energy prices and inflation
Commodities rallied in the short term
After corrections how do markets do a year later?
What percentage of corrections turn into bear markets?
Market corrections vs bear markets
Historical market returns after worst days, 3-months a year later
Probability of Fed ¼ point vs ½ point rate hikes
Mentioned in this Episode:
Contact Derek Moore derek.moore@zegafinancial.com
Derek Moore’s Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&
Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting.aspx
Atlanta Fed GDP Now https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
JP Morgan Guide to the markets https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/protected/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/
Fed Rate Probability Tool https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
CNN Business analysis on inflation with higher oil prices due to Russia Ukraine conflicthttps://www.cnn.com/2022/02/15/economy/russia-ukraine-inflation/index.html)
Mohamed El-Erian from Allianz discusses impact of Russian Ukraine conflict on 2022 Fed interest rate moves https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yh-RKSbS_hI&t=22s
Schwab market correction article showing corrections and bear markets since 1974 https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/market-correction-what-does-it-mean
Table with market shock events and stock market performance historical https://www.investopedia.com/solving-the-war-puzzle-4780889