Derek Moore explores how stock and bonds have done after the Fed starts raising rates. Is there any difference between when they raise greater than 1% compared to less than 1%? Why people should be surprised in March when February CPI numbers are released. More debate about what caused inflation. Plus, stocks continue to rerate with multiples contracting while earnings are up year to date.

 

Examining stocks and bonds after the Fed starts raising rates

Inflation causes

February CPI released in March indicated to be high still by Cleveland Fed Nowcast

Supply side vs demand side inflation

How fiscal policy contributed to inflation

How have high yield bonds done after the Fed starts raising rates

Small caps vs large caps after the Fed starts raising rates

Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast

Atlanta Fed GDP Now

 

 

Mentioned in this Episode:

 

Contact Derek Moore derek.moore@zegafinancial.com

 

Derek Moore’s Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&

 

Surprising stock market returns by President, Senate, and House party make up podcast. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/surprising-historical-returns-by-presidents-senate/id1432836154?i=1000489545724

 

Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting.aspx

 

Atlanta Fed GDP Now https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

 

JP Morgan Guide to the markets https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/protected/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/

 

Fed Rate Probability Tool https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html